As we inch closer to the Hall of Fame voting results, we’re starting to get a much better idea of who has a realistic chance of being elected.
With the Blue Jays mostly waiting out the free agent market at this stage, there isn’t a whole lot of news about the team in late December.
One of the main focuses around baseball this time of year though is the Hall of Fame voting, and there are a few former Blue Jays on the ballot this year. Included on the ballot this year are Roy Halladay, Roger Clemens, Omar Vizquel, Fred McGriff, Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, Ted Lilly, Darren Oliver, and Jeff Kent. There’s also Michael Young, who was drafted and traded before he played a big league game.
Most of the latter names on the list have next to no chance of being elected, and might even fall off the ballot this year after failing to earn the minimum of 5% to stay eligible. Chances are that’s the fate that awaits Lilly, Oliver, Wells, and likely Michael Young as well.
As for the rest, there are mixed results for the remainder of the former players, however, we’re already getting a pretty good idea of who has a realistic chance of being elected.
In fact, over at www.beyondtheboxscore.com, a young writer named Devon Fink (@devonfink), did an excellent job of putting together Hall of Fame projections based on the votes that have already been revealed, and an algorithm that he and his teacher developed for statistical analysis. This isn’t from Fangraphs or Baseball Reference, but the research and equations are well thought out and there’s a good chance they’ll end up being accurate.
If you have a look at his chart, it shows that Vizquel (41.9%), McGriff (28.9%), and Rolen (16.2%) are all going to easily surpass the 5% needed to stay on the ballot, but will come up short of the 75% needed to gain election.
On the other side, the late Roy Halladay looks like a virtual lock for induction at 89.6%, and Roger Clemens has an outside shot with a projection of 61.7%. Clemens, of course, has had his election held back beyond of the whole “steroid era”, and is joined by several other worthy candidates like Barry Bonds who have the career statistics to back up their candidacy, but are viewed as compromised by many of the voters.
So, according to Fink’s projections system, it should come as no surprise that Halladay is the lone candidate that should gain induction early in 2019. One would assume that he’ll end up as the second player wearing a Blue Jay hat on his Hall of Fame plaque, following the accomplishment of Roberto Alomar, who was elected in 2011.
As for the rest? My guess is Clemens will get elected eventually, but things don’t look good for the remainder of the group.